Will World Leaders Ever Learn?

The build up of opposing strategic alliances continues to present similarities with the build up to World War 1. War-games, arms sales, technological advances and advanced weaponry testing are creating the powder keg ready to erupt into World War 3.

By Liam Bailey

Well, everyone count your fingers and toes August 22 has come and gone and we’re all still here.   In the last few weeks since I posted my article on the similarities between the current Iran/west stand-off and the build up to World War 2, and how they could result in World War 3, the search engine terms people found my article with became strange. Things like “World War 3 August 22 (in my article the date of Iran’s reply) and military action August 22.  At first I was a little intrigued so I did a little searching myself, but after reading the first article I knew it was claptrap. 

The gist of it was… August 22 this year coincided with the Islamic date that Muhammad flew first to “the farthest mosque” – usually identified with Jerusalem – and then to heaven and back.  Ahmadinejad’s strong belief in the Shiite tradition of the 12 “hidden imam, Shiites believe the Imam Mahdi has been miraculously kept alive by Allah since his disappearance in 874 A.D and will return at a time of great global chaos. Ahmadinejad believes strongly in this, some analysts are stating that Ahmadinejad and the Iranian leadership believe the time for Mahdi’s return is now, others like zionist.com go further to say “Ahmadinejad sees himself as Allah’s instrument to pave the way for Imam Mahdi.” This led to suspicions over Iran’s intentions for delaying their response to the six-nations incentives package until that significant religous day, some people believed they intended to attack Israel some even stated a nuclear attack could be in the offing.

All August 22  brought was the Iranian response to the six-nations incentives package, as stated, which continued the routine of this whole diplomatic effort, both sides in the tussle for the support of Russia and China being seen to favour diplomacy, but both sides unwilling to sacrifice sufficiently to achieve it.  Iran refused to halt its enrichment activities in return for the six-nations incentives package, a western pre-condition for talks, then said they want to re-open diplomatic talks, which could then possibly led to an enrichment suspension.  The reactions from world leaders were somewhat predictable. 

The EU and U.S were unsurprisingly disappointed with Iran’s response, saying that the response fell short of what was expected of Iran, a full and swift suspension to all enrichment activities, as stated in U.N resolution 1696, which threatens sanctions should Tehran refuse to comply by August 31.  Russia and China however were less disappointed with the Iranians response, saying it was enough to bring all parties back to the negotiating table.

On the face of it the Iranian response and the unsurprisingly different reactions from the five member states has led to fears that Iran are trying to split the UN.  I believe it is just another effort at buying time to achieve their goal, using the Indian, Pakistani and North Korean model that once you have the bomb no one dare do anything about it.  I suspect Iran will come unstuck in this strategy, Bush cannot be compared to other Presidents, he is crazy, and the areas that it comes most to the fore is areas of previous U.S foreign policy mistakes, Afghanistan, Iraq and North Korea.  It is when you look at the other related events in the past days and months that it all becomes clear… 

Bush is definitely planning the use of military action to stop Iran building nuclear weapons; the trouble is the amount of fringe nations likely to enter the conflict, not to mention China and Russia, whose defectors have said there are existing plans in both nations for a catastrophic conflict with the U.S.   The UN is already split and the world has never been closer to all out war.  This crisis is making friends and enemies for both sides and as I’ve said in previous articles, both have and are creating significant strategic alliances.

In recent days and months we have and are seeing massive military exercises carried out by all players in both alliances, including joint exercises involving U.S, Bulgarian and Romanian armed forces from the start of July, which coincided on July 5 with the N.Korean missile tests and the exercises are expected to continue until September.  Followed on August 19 by Iran launching their biggest military exercises since just after their announcement of successfully enriching uranium, the exercise, which is well underway in 14 of Iran’s provinces bordering with Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Armenia and the Republic of Azerbajan, all would become front-lines in any U.S/Iran war, and the exercises are to continue between now and October, the timeframe many analysts predict for a U.S led attack on Iran.  

Perhaps most worrying of all the Iranian war-games coincided with two massive operations in Kazakhstan, by the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), both launched on August 24.  The CSTO, Rubezh-2006 exercise, organised by Russia and involving Tajikstan, Krygistan and Kazakhstan took place near Aktau in Kazakhstan.  Kazakhstan also took part in the SCO operation with China, police and special forces units from both countries took part in the exercise Tianshan one in the Almaty region near China, which is thought to have been closely co-ordinated with the Russian CSTO and the Iranian exercises. 

Russia and China have signed a military cooperation agreement and are the main suppliers of advanced weapons to Iran and Syria, as well as both having spoken military cooperation agreements with all other SCO members, which will include Iran when their invitation to become a full member is honoured.  Respectively the U.S and Israel have military cooperation agreements with Azerbajan and Georgia.  The joint drills in Kazakhstan are thought to have come in response to mis-trust of the U.S intentions in the region, the threat of attack on Iran, the U.S navy’s involvement in the re-building of Kazakhstan’s navy since 2003, and Iranian fears that the U.S is attempting to build up their ally Azerbajan to counter Iranian influence and dominance in the region, hence the Iranian exercise on the Azerbajan border. 

The Kazakhstan exercises were undoubtedly both preparation for a U.S attack on Iran and a warning that if Iran is attacked, Russia and China won’t remain neutral.  How many other countries are dragged into the conflict and when will depend on the U.S and/or Israeli strategy.   The Iranian exercise and missile tests are preparation, but could be used as cover for mass transporting of troops and equipment, possibly a pre-emptive strike of their own on Azerbajan say.  All this is on top of the latest reports from U.S Brigadier General Michael Barbero, he told reporters at the Pentagon that Iran is training Iraqi insurgents, who would have thought it. 

I suggest that all informed people have known for a long time that Iran is deeply involved in the U.S problem of Iraq, the Pentagon making the announcement amid the current nuclear stand-off could be a further suggestion that the U.S war machine is in the final stages of preparation, the first attempt at pacifying the public, at least this time it is true.  Another worrying development was Iran announcing that their new heavy water reactor was going on-line, just a few days after it replied to the six-nations incentives package on Aug 22 with a refusal to meet the western demands of suspending enrichment. 

Since the proposal was given Bush’s Neocon UN ambassador John Bolton finally managed to get Russia on board and resolution 1696 was passed demanding an immediate and verifiable halt to all enrichment activities by August 31 and threatening sanctions should Iran fail to comply.  Thursday August 31st then, is the big day, but if we didn’t know immediately after the resolution was passed that Iran wouldn’t comply, their calling it illegal was always a bad sign, then we certainly did when they responded to the six-nations proposal, and the heavy water reactor sealed the deal. 

Iran will not suspend uranium activity Aug 31, in fact I suggest it will continue to be scaled up.  Bush will begin to get his knickers in a twist with the UN failing to impose sanctions, which Russia and China will always oppose, and according to the Times would do Iran more good than harm.  Bush will eventually use the situation to continue his advance for domination of the Middle East and onwards… the Caspian…who’s next, come on then?  I just hope the world can survive till Bush is finally restrained and dragged from the White-House, or voted out democratically, which ever comes first.



  1. Ted said,

    January 11, 2007 at 4:00 am

    These are truly exciting times

  2. Liam Bailey said,

    January 11, 2007 at 6:22 pm

    Exciting… care to elaborate?

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